Speech by Faith Spear FRSA given at Battle of Ideas, Parker Morris Hall, Westminster on Saturday 17 October 2026.

Let me start by saying prisons are in a permanent state of crisis in one form or another, I’ve never known a time when prisons were not in crisis. When things haven’t changed in decades then it becomes a permanent installation of the system, so let’s not kid ourselves that letting abusers out early will solve the prison crisis.

The problem of overpopulation and the risk of full capacity will still be there.

Between 1500 – 1800 prison cells across England and Wales sit completely empty/out of use because they lack the legally required automatic fire detection systems (AFD), according to James McEwen, Director General Chief Executive Officer HMPPS at Ministry of Justice.

This is approximately the number of cells you would find in a mega prison.

There is a £1.8B maintenance backlog. Gov Facility Services Limited (GFSL) with registered Office in Petty France took over when [the facilities management company] Carillion collapsed.

According to Companies House, there is 1 person with significant control – Secretary of State for Justice.

So does that mean the government contracting with the government to provide a government service?

Staff shortages
HMP Millsike opened last year and has over 300 cells unused due to staff shortages.

I think we need to look again at what prison is for. Punishment, rehabilitation?

Having visited every category of prison, what I see is that most prisons are basically warehouses of the vulnerable. As I have said before…

“We have to stop this madness of believing that we can change people and their behaviour by banging them up in warehouse conditions with little to do and not enough to eat and sanitation from a previous century.”

Early releases have put pressure onto a saturated Probation Service; it’s like digging a hole to fill another one.

Fran, the founder of Coming Home Project, told me that [in the first wave of early releases] on 1st October 2026, out of 20 women released early in the Greater Manchester area, 2 women were supported by them with hostel accommodation for the night and 3 women were released with “no fixed abode” where the prison couldn’t or wouldn’t confirm where they would end up.

So, here is a 6-point plan to reduce the prison population, written by Beccaria in 1764, in a period of enlightenment (we could do with another one):

“In order that punishment should not be an act of violence perpetrated by one or many upon a private citizen, it is essential that it should be public, speedy, necessary, the minimum possible in the given circumstances, proportionate to the crime, and determined by the law.”

Let me briefly unpack that:

Point 1: Public
Who can you believe, the so called “MoJ spokesperson”? So much is hidden. We need transparency and [real] accountability.

Point 2: Speedy
Courts are severely backlogged; magistrates have been given extra powers. But from my experience many magistrates don’t know what alternatives to custodial sentences look like in their area and have never stepped foot in a prison and neither have some judges I have met.

If we invest in the very fabric of the court buildings and cut the backlogs with extra sitting days, recruit new magistrates (according to Minister of State Sarah Sackman KC MP the target is 21,000 by 2029) can we then reduce the number of people on remand?

Point 3: Necessary
In section 57 of the Sentencing Code it says: The court must have regard to the five purposes of sentencing when determining sentence (over18’s).
The fourth purpose is: The protection of the public including victims of crime
It also states: Both community and custodial sentences can achieve all the purposes of sentencing. And yet, between 2013 and 2023 community sentences fell by 51%.
So, [here’s a question]: is letting abusers out early breaking or making a mockery of the sentencing code by not protecting the public and victims of crime?

Point 4: Minimum possible in the given circumstances
Instead, we have sentence inflation, public pressure and penal populism.

Point 5: Proportionate to the crime
I’m sure many of us are aware of the IPP sentence. Introduced under former Home Secretary David Blunkett in the Criminal Justice Act 2003, designed to show that New Labour was “tough on crime.”

Allowing courts to impose indeterminate prison sentences on offenders deemed a “risk,” keeping them in prison indefinitely without a fixed release date. Abolished in 2012, yet thousands remain [in prison] trapped under its legacy.

In 2022 House of Commons Justice Committee described the policy as “an unmitigated disaster that exacerbated severe overcrowding without improving public safety.”

Point 6: Determined by the law
The Sentencing Act 2026 was introduced to address crisis in the prison system and reform criminal justice practices based on the Independent Sentencing Review in 2025 led by David Gauke.

However, on the subject of prison reform, a former Permanent Secretary told me, and I quote:

“I cannot emphasise how strongly I agree with you. Whilst I could “spin” the company line that things are being done in the background I fear you would see through it. Be as it may, until the general public make it impossible for my ministers to ignore further, it will be a subject that shall remain taboo and talked about behind closed doors.”

To sum up, I don’t believe that letting abusers out early will solve the prison crisis.
And neither should you.

Thank you for listening.

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Further helpful points:

Sentences have become longer: The Average Custodial Sentence Length (ACSL).
The overall ACSL for all types of offences has increased:
from 13.7 months in 2010 to 20.9 months in 2023
from 17.1 months in 2020 to 20.9 months in 2023
(Sentence inflation or change in types of crime)

Between 2013 and 2023 community sentences fell by 51%.
And yet [in section 57 of the Sentencing Code] it says: The court must have regard to the five purposes of sentencing when determining sentence (over18’s)
• The punishment of offenders
• The reduction of crime (including its reduction by deterrence)
• The reform and rehabilitation of offenders
• The protection of the public including victims of crime
• The making of reparation by offenders to persons affected by their offences
• The weight each purpose should be given will vary from case to case. Both community and custodial sentences can achieve all the purposes of sentencing.

Penal populism refers to a political approach where crime control policies and criminal justice decisions are driven primarily by political gain and public sentiment, rather than by empirical evidence, expert opinion, or long-term policy effectiveness.
In penal populism, politicians adopt an increasingly harsh, “tough on crime” stance to appeal to voters’ anxieties and moral outrage, assuming that the public favours strict punishment above all else.

I hear so much talk about building more prisons from the same people who previously said “we can’t build ourselves out of a crisis” But: HMP Millsike cost £264M to construct, and has an operating contract of £300M

Rounding down, that’s approx £0.5B for 1500 spaces (or £376,000 per cell)
Conservative Party has said it wants 50,000 extra spaces => £18.8B that’s not going to happen.

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Letting abusers out early: solving the prisons crisis